Obamapalooza

(Revelers throng to the Washington Monument for Obama's swearing-in.)

A four-day weekend of high expectations came to a gleeful close Tuesday, as Barack Obama was sworn in as President of the United States. Nearly two million people crowded the vast frozen common of the National Mall to watch the brief swearing-in ceremony, while thousands who held tickets to secure areas at the foot of Capitol Hill found themselves trapped in immobile hordes. Thousands spent the ceremony trapped underground in the Third Street tunnel under Pennsylvania Avenue, after being directed there by confused police.

For the record-shattering crowds who clustered around the twenty-one Jumbotrons erected on the Mall, Inauguration Day consisted of long, meandering walks around an overzealous network of security barricades punctuated by the high emotion of the ceremony itself. Revelers cheered and booed as past presidents and cabinet nominees filed into the bleachers above the inaugural podium. Both Presidents Bush and a wheel-chair bound Dick Cheney drew thunderous hisses and boos from the excited crowd, while Bill and Hillary Clinton and the Obamas received cheers and ululations each time they appeared on the enormous screens. After President Obama finished his oath, strangers hugged one another and people openly wept. When Reverend Joseph Lowery finished his benediction with a call and response of "amen," the call was answered with triumphant excitement.

Sunday's free concert on the Mall augured Tuesday's historical turnout. Half a million people filled the grounds around the Lincoln Memorial to watch Sunday's star-studded performance, more than the entire turnout to George W Bush's second inauguration in 2005.


(Spectators filled the west slope of the Washington Monument.)



(This man came from Jalisco to represent el espiritu Azteca.)



(After the concert, people flooded the streets around the White House.)

Monday, the Mall buzzed with excitement. Visitors took turns throwing shoes at effigies of former President Bush. Throughout DC, officials put finishing touches on complex and overlapping security precautions. Buildings around downtown were searched and sealed. Groups of National Guard troops occupied street corners along Florida Avenue and took up positions outside shuttered liquor stores. The historic U Street corridor filled with visitors who flooded restaurants, clubs and bars. Dozens stood in line outside Ben's Chili Bowl.

Hours before dawn on Tuesday, attendees began the long march towards the Mall or the sidewalks of Pennsylvania Avenue. The streets around the Capitol were closed, forcing uncoordinated streams of tens of thousands into chaotic confluences that left thousands stranded. Barricades and bottlenecks corralled masses of people without clear signs or informed officials to guide them. Happily, they were in a cheery mood.


(Thousands spent the swearing-in trapped in the "Tunnel of Doom.")



(Nearly two million filled the National Mall.)



(People climbed trees and portable toilets for a better view.)


While the atmosphere was jubilant, the crowd clearly harbored resentment towards eight years of Bush leadership. As current and former government officials streamed into the bleachers on Capitol Hill, the masses on the Mall booed vociferously as George HW Bush, George W Bush and Dick Cheney appeared on the Jumbotrons. When Bill and Hillary Clinton appeared, they cheered. President Obama's motorcade, his family and his cabinet nominees received shouts of praise. When the President appeared, the cheers were deafening. After Chief Justice John Roberts bungled the administration of the oath of office, Obama delivered his inaugural address with the surety and rhetorical confidence he demonstrated on the campaign trail, promising renewed national unity in the face of two wars and global economic collapse.



(President Obama takes the oath of office beside his wife Michelle.)


After the swearing-in concluded, exiting the Mall took hours. As crowds bled away, they revealed fields of detritus amounting to more litter than all the litter ever left on the Mall combined, the Park Police said today. While people waited to clear needless and redundant barricades, they were treated to a flyover by the Marine helicopter ferrying former President Bush to Edwards Air Force Base, where he caught a flight to Midland, Texas. Once clear of Mall, crowds dissipated quickly, catching Metro trains to distant hotels, filling bars and restaurants, and walking back to their neighborhoods.

During the Congressional luncheon immediately after the swearing-in, Senators Edward Kennedy and Robert Bird were taken to the hospital after Kennedy had a seizure. Senator Bird was so upset, he was also taken to the hospital as a precaution. After a forty minute delay caused by their departures, Obama left Capitol Hill in his new, highly armored limousine dubbed "The Beast." He seemed happy, despite the unfortunate interruption, and opted to walk portions of the parade route before arriving at the review stand opposite the White House. After appearances at ten inaugural balls, the President returned to the White House with his wife, where they drank champagne with a small cohort of guests.



(After the swearing-in, George W Bush took one last flight over DC.)



(The line into Capitol South Metro Station reached two blocks.)



(Many crowded the homes of local residents, eager to witness to history.)

Free Concert Draws Hundreds of Thousands

(Hundreds of thousands turned out for the concert.)

Hundreds of thousands of excited revelers flocked to the National Mall today to watch a free inaugural concert presented by HBO. Of the star-studded cast, the real star was President-elect Barack Obama, who sat beaming on the front row with his wife, daughters, Vice-president Elect Joe Biden and Mrs Biden. Hundreds of thousands filled the wooded grounds around the Reflecting Pool and the slope of frozen yellow grass between the Washington Monument and the World War Two Memorial.


(All were invited. Many came.)

Among the highlights of the show were performances by Bruce Springsteen, Usher and Stevie Wonder, and a rousing rendition of This Land is Your Land led by Pete Seeger. Among numerous speakers, Jamie Foxx, Denzel Washington, and Samuel Jackson stood out, with Foxx playfully mocking Obama's oratorical style. Low points included a flaccid and long-winded speech by Tom Hanks, inconsequential appearances by several celebrities, two tethered bald eagles, and a set-ruining cameo by Jon Bon Jovi. Obama appeared at the end of the afternoon-long show, giving the last speech of his political career before assuming the office of president on Tuesday.

Obama Arrives

(Obama's motorcade races to Blair House)

At the end of a six and half hour railroad trip from Philadelphia, President-elect Barack Obama arrived in Washington, DC just shy of seven this evening. The city was teeming with the first of an expected 1.5 to 3 million visitors. After appearances in Philadelphia, Wilmington and Baltimore, where Obama appeared visibly moved by crowds turning out to witness his historic journey to the capital, the President-elect rolled into Union Station in a 1930's era blue caboose. Obamapalooza caught the motorcade as it roared away from the station to Blair House, where the Obamas will be staying until Tuesday's inauguration.


[Thanks to Sadie Kadlec and Evan Brown for shooting and cutting the video.]

Metro Gets With the Program

In an eleventh hour about-face, DC Metro has amended its inauguration-eve schedule to accommodate extended bar hours and hyperbolic crowds in a city with vehicular traffic all but curtailed for security measures. WMATA posted updated inauguration information on its website detailing its new hours and a list of stations that will be either closed completely or reserved as entrance/exit only on Inauguration Day.


(Metro stations are marked with this.)

Metro will now run until 2 AM on Monday January 19. Previously, Metro would have closed at midnight, in accordance with a normal holiday schedule, as the 19th is Martin Luther King Day. That would have severely limited movement around the capital on a night when hundreds of thousands are expected to attend eighteen balls and innumerable private parties across the District.

Obamapalooza has long lamented there was not better coordination between WMATA and the District Council over extended bar hours. While Metro’s 2 AM closing time Monday night reflects at least a modicum of situational awareness, it still comes two hours before bars stop serving on a night when what could be the largest contingent of visitors in Washington history are expected.

At least eighteen inaugural balls are scheduled for the 19th. With Wednesday, Jan 21, still officially a working day, many inauguration visitors may chose to celebrate Monday night. Those who miss the last 2 AM train will have to contend with a limited number of taxis in city all but shut down to vehicular traffic, or perhaps thumb a ride in someone’s limo.

New Metro Hours

Sat 1/17: 7 AM – 3 AM
Sun 1/18: 7 AM – 12 AM
Mon 1/19: 5 AM – 2 AM
Tue 1/20: 4 AM – 2 AM


(System map for DC Metro)

For security purposes, the Secret Service has asked WMATA to close a handful of metro stations on Inauguration Day. The following stations will be closed on Tuesday, January 20 until 6:30 PM.

– Green/Yellow Lines –

Archives
Navy Memorial
Penn Quarter

– Blue/Orange Lines –

Smithsonian

Additionally, the Judiciary Square station on the Red Line will close at 4 PM, and the Mt Vernon Square/7th Street Convention Center station on the Green/Yellow Lines will close at 7:30 AM on Inauguration Day due to their proximity to inaugural balls.

In a move that could spell added confusion to Metro chaos, the following stations will be entrance only on Inauguration Day.

– Blue/Orange Lines –

L’Enfant Plaza
Metro Center
Stadium-Armory

– Red Line –

Farragut North
Gallery Place-Chinatown
Metro Center
Union Station

– Yellow/Green Lines –

L’Enfant Plaza
Gallery Place-Chinatown

The following Blue/Orange Lines stations will be exit only from 4 AM to 10:30 AM on January 20.

Capitol South
Farragut West
Federal Triangle
Federal Center SW
McPherson Square

Additionally, WMATA is asking riders not to transfer at Metro Center, Gallery Place-Chinatown or L’Enfant Plaza on Inauguration Day.

While these restrictions aim to reduce system-crippling congestion, they essentially render the center of Washington a pedestrian-only zone. People residing or staying within two miles of the Mall or Pennsylvania Avenue should walk to the swearing-in ceremony and parade to facilitate droves of visitors relying on Metro to shuttle them in from Maryland and Virginia suburbs.

For more Metro information, see WMATA's inauguration website: http://www.wmata.com/getting_around/metro_events/inauguration.cfm

Post Map Shows 21 Jumbotrons on Mall

According to the Washington Post, twenty-one, not twenty-two Jumbotrons will be placed along the 1.9 miles of the National Mall for President-elect Barack Obama’s swearing-in ceremony. With more than a million visitors expected Tuesday morning, inauguration officials will provide the enormous television screens to enable viewing from the far reaches of the grassy common. In accordance with Obama’s wishes that his inauguration be more inclusive than past ceremonies, the US Park Police, which oversees the Mall, has decided to open the entire 309 acres to the public. In previous years, much of the area was used as a staging ground for the Inaugural Parade.

A map detailing the location of the Jumbotrons appeared in this morning’s paper and is available online here.

Free Sunday Concert Details Pinned Down

More than a dozen A-list musicians and celebrities will appear at a free 2 PM concert Sunday January 18 as part of this weekend’s inaugural festivities.

The 90 minute concert at the Lincoln Memorial will feature Beyoncé, Mary J Blige, Garth Brooks, Sheryl Crow, René Fleming, Josh Groban, Herbie Hancock, Heather Headley, John Legend, John Mellencamp, Shakira, Bruce Springstein, James Taylor, U2, Usher, Will.I.Am, and Stevie Wonder.

Jamie Foxx, Denzel Washington and Queen Latifah will make speeches on the historic nature of Obama’s election. HBO will broadcast the show later on Sunday.

Obama supporters upset at the choice of Rick Warren to give the invocation at Jan 20th’s inauguration should be pleased with the selection of V. Gene Robinson, a gay Episcopal Bishop, to give Sunday’s concert’s invocation.

Though, why, pray, does a concert need an invocation?

Weekend Roundup

With just over a week remaining before the inauguration, officials ran through an inauguration rehearsal while the Obamas spent their first weekend in Washington as future first family.

Saturday, President-elect Obama went to lunch with DC Mayor Adrian Fenty at Ben’s Chili Bowl, a DC institution long considered one of the important centers of black culture in one of the capital cities of black America. True to his promise to be in better touch with DC than previous presidents, Obama accompanied Fenty to the grubby U-street diner rather than one of numerous fine restaurants reserved for Washington power brokers. They ordered the house special, chili half-smokes, a half-pork half-beef sausage smothered in chili. The half-smoke is DC’s signature dish. A sign in the restaurant which once read "People who eat free at Ben's: Bill Cosby and NO ONE ELSE" has been amended to read "People who eat free at Ben's: Bill Cosby and The Obama Family." Hand written beneath it someone wrote, "He Paid."

Later on Saturday, Obama visited the Lincoln Memorial with wife Michelle and their two daughters Malia and Sasha. Arriving after dark, the future first family toured the enormous temple at the west end of the National Mall, with its famous 20 ft statue of the 16th President and Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation and 2nd Inaugural Address inscribed on its walls. They toured the basement museum of Lincoln memorabilia before appearing briefly on the monument's white steps where they waved to passersby. Perhaps Mr Obama was looking for inspiration for his own inaugural address, which he will give a week from tomorrow at the opposite end of DC’s great common.

On Sunday, officials from the alphabet soup of different and complimentary inauguration committees performed a rehearsal of the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. 26-year-old Army Staff Sgt. Derrick Brooks portrayed Obama, giving the shortest inaugural address in history, “My fellow Americans, God bless America.” LaSean McCray, a 36-year-old Navy yeoman first class, portrayed Michelle Obama. Several military and civilian bands marched in the mock parade from Capitol Hill to the White House, while officials twice practiced Marine One’s helicopter departure from the Capitol's East Plaza which will take George W Bush on the final ride of his presidency.

Inaugural Security Picture Coming Into Focus

In a front-page article in Sunday's paper about beefed-up security at the inauguration, the Washington Post again missed the forest for the trees.

Based on figures compiled from the Post article, the total security presence for the 2009 inauguration will be 67% larger than for George W Bush’s 2005 inauguration, while total attendance, currently estimated to be between 1.5 million and 3 million, will be four to eight times larger. In other words, the proportional security presence at Barack Obama’s inauguration will be anywhere from half to nearly a quarter of that provided for Bush in 2005.

According to the figures reported by the Post, the FBI’s Washington Field Office will bring in a 20% larger force than is typical for an inauguration. The Park Police, which oversees the National Mall, will increase its force by 66%. The D.C. police presence, bolstered by 4,000 officers from outside the District, will be 25% larger than that at George Bush’s 2005 inauguration. Relative to this year’s expected turnout, those increases would be paltry without a massive increase in military personnel acting as security.

11,500 active duty troops will be in Washington on Inauguration Day, compared with 7,000 in 2005, a 64% jump. But if the 5,000 servicemen and women who traditionally participate in the inaugural parade are discounted as security, the size of the military’s security footprint, in real terms, will increase from 2,000 to 6,500, a 225% larger force than in 2005. According to the Post, 1,300 unarmed National Guard soldiers will bolster the ranks of 1,000 Park Police tasked with controlling the 309 acres of the National Mall. The remaining 5,000 military personnel – a full brigade – will assist “with crowd control, communications, security, medical care, logistics, weapons detection and other needs,” the Post reported.

That means Obama’s inauguration, with a substantially smaller security presence relative to crowd size, will be substantially more militarized. Given that inaugurations are exercises in symbolism, filling Washington with thousands of uniformed troops seems like a potential public relations gaff. Obama rode into office on a wave of public discontent with the Iraq War. The last time the National Guard flooded DC’s streets was 1968, during the race riots that exploded after the assassination of Martin Luther King. A militarized inauguration could evoke both.

Renegade Has Landed

The Obama family arrived in Washington, DC this weekend on separate planes from Chicago. They checked into the Hay-Adams hotel, near Lafayette Squre, after being snubbed by the Bush administration, which refused the future first family quarters at the Blair House until January 15. Blair House, across the street from the White House, is the traditional residence of presidents-elect while they await inauguration.

Obama told reporters that he was displeased with the prospect of a further two weeks living in a hotel, saying, “we kind of did that for two years.” Secret Service has transformed the Hay-Adams into a fortress, closing adjacent streets and setting up barricades to prevent suicide car bombings. The president-elect’s daughters Malia and Sasha start school today at Sidwell Friends with fellow classmates returning from winter break.

President-elect Obama flies to Philadelphia on January 17 to begin a ceremonial train journey to Washington, DC. Official inaugural events begin January 18 with an appearance by Obama at the Lincoln Memorial.

A Tale of Two Phillies

Barack Obama’s decision to arrive at his inauguration on a train from Philadelphia offers more than a rhetorical nod to Abraham Lincoln, who traveled to his 1861 inauguration along the same route. The Amtrak line Obama will follow January 17 on a specially chartered train offers the President-elect an on-the-ground perspective of how badly America’s infrastructure and working class communities have corroded due to decades of decline and neglect. Official appearances are scheduled in Philadelphia, Wilmington, Baltimore and Washington – all once-prosperous cities suffering from a surfeit of institutional and social maladies. Symptoms as wide ranging as rusting bridges and rampant homicides speak to a civilizational malaise desperately in need of a corrective.


(Train yards west of Philadelphia's 30th Street Station)

For decades, while Wall Street and real estate portfolios ballooned with profits from nothing, working-class communities and the massive public works projects of the early 20th century have been systemically starved to the brink of collapse. DC saw its homicide rate climb 2.2% to 185 in 2008. Even though Baltimore and Philadelphia saw double-digit percentage drops in homicides this year, to over 200 and 300 respectively, murder rates in those cities remained several times higher than the national average. Wilmington set a city record of 24 homicides for 2008. Institutionalized poverty, failing public schools, a now decades-old drug epidemic, rampant divorce, AIDS, failing or non-existent community organizations, unemployment, underemployment, government corruption, and societal and governmental neglect all contribute to these appalling statistics.


(Philadelphia's 30th Street Station)

Perhaps nothing could be a better symbol for the decline of these four American cities than Philadelphia’s 30th Street Station. Built in 1933, Philadelphia’s rail hub is a wonder of public infrastructure resembling an Egyptian temple. Then state-of-the-art steel beams enabled the building’s architects to fill the exterior walls of the post and lintel structure with windows, flooding the enormous central hall of the station with natural light. The arched roofs of the station’s trolley platforms are made of an interlaced webbing of steel girders. It is precisely the kind of building one would never expect government contractors to be able or willing to build, yet it was built four years into the Great Depression.


(The "Drexel Shaft" on the west side of the 30th Street Station)

Straddling the west bank of the Schuylkill River, the 30th Street Station sits in the heart of a sprawling industrial complex that at its heyday was a feat of American engineering. Now blighted with rust, its web of rusting tracks and bridges encircle the defunct “Drexel Shaft” – an enormous smokestack looming over the University City neighborhood – which once provided power and heating to the 30th Street Station and its outbuildings. The massive quantity of steel girders, rails and rivets, the esthetic care of the station’s architects, and the political will to push through the financing of such a costly public good during a time of economic ruin speak to the surplus of cultural wealth available in the midst of this country’s worst economic era. That that richness was left to spoil by an oligarchy of conmen and profiteers speaks to moral bankruptcy in desperate need of a bailout.

JCCIC Asks Disabled to Think Twice About Inauguration; Ticket Holders to Arrive by 9

The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies advised ticket holders to the January 20 inauguration to arrive no later than 9 a.m. The program starts at 11:30. 240,000 ticketed guests will occupy a secure zone on the western slope of Capitol Hill. Strollers, backpacks, thermoses and umbrellas are prohibited in the secure zone and all ticket holders will pass through a metal detector and receive a pat down.

1,000,000 or more people are expected on the National Mall, a grassy common that stretches from the base of Capitol Hill to the Lincoln Memorial, some two miles distant. Those attendees will be able to watch the inaugural program via ten enormous Jumbotrons. While there are no restrictions on strollers or other items on the Mall, event organizers have asked parents to consider the wisdom of bringing young children given limited space, large crowds, hours-long waits and potentially cold weather.

Additionally, the JCCIC asked people with special needs to think twice about attending the inauguration. Traffic to and from Capitol Hill and the Mall will be severely curtailed, requiring millions to either walk several miles or suffer inordinately long lines and overcrowding in Metro stations. Given the importance of Metro to the overall movement of inauguration attendees, JCCIC’s decision seems a thinly veiled plea for the disabled to get out of the way.

Balls and Mayhem

The Washington Post ran two inaugural updates this morning.

According to the Post, the Presidential Inaugural Committee has announced that it will hold ten official inaugural balls in five locations. These are the only balls where the first and second families are certain to make an appearance the night of January 20th. Six of the balls will be held at the Washington Convention Center, with the remaining four at the National Building Museum, Union Station, the Washington Hilton and the D.C Armory. Attendance at the balls is sorted geographically, with ticket holders from various parts of the country attending together. The five sites are guaranteed to be tightly guarded by Secret Service, with long lines expected and traffic severely curtailed in the surrounding streets. Ten balls is more than either of George W Bush’s inaugurations, while falling short of the record of fourteen, set by Bill Clinton in 1997.

Additionally, the Post reports that Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff met with DC mayor Adrian Fenty and the governors of Maryland and Virginia to discuss the incipient road and rail fiasco as millions of people arriving for the inauguration test the limits of the Washington Metropolitan Area’s transportation infrastructure. It seems that the gravity of the situation may suddenly becoming real to elected officials and their representatives. Obamapalooza has reported extensively on the likelihood that tens of thousands of people trying to get into DC for inauguration festivities will be stranded on over-crowded train platforms and in gridlocked traffic backed up for miles. Robert Crouch, homeland security advisor to Virginia governor Tim Kaine told the Post, “[traffic] is part of where the major focus will turn, so that people don’t spend hours, if not days on the interstate.”

Days, people. Days.

Abrahamapalooza 2.0

First he settled on following the tail leg of Lincoln’s whistle stop tour to the 1861 inauguration, deciding to travel by train from Philadelphia to Washington January 17, 2009. Now Barack Obama will swear his allegiance to the Constitution on a bible once owned by the sixteenth president, the Presidential Inaugural Committee announced yesterday.

Owning to a combination of Obama’s personal admiration for his predecessor and a knack for political showmanship, the 2009 inauguration will be full of nods to Lincoln. True the men have something in common. Both were adopted sons of Illinois who began their careers in Illinois state politics. Both were long shot candidates, political outsiders often ridiculed for their backgrounds, appearances and lack of the traditional presidential trappings. But much of the Lincoln-Obama parallel results from circumstance and shrewd stagecraft.

Obama has chosen to arrive at his inauguration on a train from Philadelphia, after a stop in Baltimore, as Lincoln did in 1861. Obama will take the oath of office with his hand on Lincoln’s bible. During Obama’s swearing in on the west steps of the US Capitol he will look across the National Mall to the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, where Martin Luther King gave the most important speech of the civil rights era forty-five years ago.

If any theme has predominance in Obama’s nascent presidency it is reconciliation. He has stocked his cabinet, as Lincoln did, with rivals. He has reached across party lines, inviting prominent Republicans to join his cohort. In the selection of Rick Warren to give the inaugural invocation, Obama showed that embracing the evangelical right at least symbolically was worth alienating an important and influential part of the left.

The inauguration is our first glimpse at what the Obama presidency will be like, apart from the bluster and promise of the primary and general elections. It is the first fruit of Obama policy. In the choice of Lincoln as a symbol and a role model, Obama promises to follow ideals rather than political expediencies. Hopefully he can live up to that promise.

Towards a Final Tally

Guessing how many people will attend Barack Obama’s inauguration in just under a month is quickly becoming the most popular parlor game in DC. Backing away from previous estimates that as many as 6 million people could flood the city for the January 20 festivities, city officials revised their projections downwards in an article appearing in today’s Washington Post. But new figures of 1.5 to 3 million are drawn from maximum capacities of DC’s metropolitan area transportation infrastructure, not demand. In other words, the new figures reflect how many people may actually make it into the city for the swearing-in and subsequent parade, but not how many people may try.

The Post article reveals that original estimates of 4 to 6 million came from projected demand and did not reflect infrastructural capabilities. Much like the German army’s Schlieffen Plan in World War One – which put more troops in motion than roads and trains could physically carry – these early projections appear to have originated with haphazard reasoning based on little more than holding a wet finger in the political winds. While officials are cutting those estimates by more than half, their new figures do not account for what will happen to any excess of people who come to the DC area during the inauguration weekend but are left stranded outside the city due to insufficient road and rail capacity.

In an augury of just how little officials know about inauguration turnout, the Post story repeats City Administrator Dan Tangherlini’s fallacious reasoning that the final number can be estimated by accounting for Metro’s 1.2 million person capacity. Metro is not an indicator of turnout as a Metro rider must already be in the DC area to use Metro in the first place. How many people can ride the subway doesn't reflect how many people will try to come to the city. Furthermore, while suburban residents from Maryland and Virginia may use Metro to reach the inaugural festivities, the 1.2 million figure also accounts for visitors who reached the Washington area by other means.

Calculating those numbers is easier.

500,000 people are expected to arrive on 10,000 chartered buses – half of the total number of charter buses east of the Mississippi. An additional 500,000 are due to arrive at National, Dulles and BWI airports. 75,000 are slated to arrive on Amtrak. 580,000 people live in the District. 5.3 million live in the Washington Metropolitan Area. While these projections, drawn from ticket sales and bus charters, appear relatively stable, several important variables remain unknown that could radically alter the final attendance numbers.

Perhaps the most important is car travel. AAA told the Post that three-quarters of tourists visiting DC arrive by car. But with bridges closed to private vehicles and large swaths of the city closed to traffic for security, it is anybody’s guess how many people will try to drive into the city or to outlying park and ride areas. If anywhere close to the three-quarters figure holds true in this case, upwards of 3 million people could be stalled in gridlock on the complex system of interstate surrounding the nation’s capital. How many would-be drivers actually make the inauguration is anyone’s guess.

The next most important factor is weather. If January 20 is a clear, relatively warm day, hundreds of thousands of residents living within a few miles of the National Mall may walk to the inauguration, swelling the total numbers substantially. DC is a Janus-faced city. On the one hand, it is Wonkdom – home of legions of federal bureaucrats who live and breathe politics. On the other, it is Chocolate City – historically and culturally one of the most important black cities in America. In a testament to his political charisma, Obama has sent a bolt of electricity through both enclaves. Decent weather could bring out Washington area residents in huge numbers.

Finally, one must account for interest. While people who already purchased tickets are unlikely to scrap their plans, visitors planning to drive from east coast cities and residents of surrounding suburbs and exurbs looking at a potential meltdown of mass transit services may opt to stay home and watch the inauguration on TV. That decision is affected by a complex and fluctuating political energy. Obama attracted record numbers during his close primary fight and election battle. Inauguration turnout may measure whether the Obameter is already starting to settle towards a new reality.

Looking Out For Number One (& For Number Two)

In what is either a serious downgrading of expected inauguration turnout or a bureaucratic snafu waiting in the wings, Presidental Inaugural Committee executive director Emmett Beliveau announced that 5,000 portable toilets will be made available for the inauguration.

While that may sound like a lot, 2,200 portable toilets were on hand for George W Bush’s 2005 inauguration, which 300,000 people attended. That’s one porta-potty for every 136 people. If two million people attend the noon swearing-in ceremony and the 2:30 inaugural parade, 5,000 toilets will provide one seven-foot plastic sanctuary for every 400 people, exceeding the National Park Service’s recommendation of one per 300.

Does this mean the Obama inaugural committee expects a lower than predicted turnout? Or has Mr Beliveau fudged his toilet algebra?

Obamapalooza thinks the latter.

Of those 5,000 toilets, only 1,000 will be arrayed along the Mall, with 3,500 dotting the parade route. Surely at least as many people will attend Obama’s inaugural ceremony as will attend the parade. Beliveau’s toilet algebra would have three times as many people attending the latter, which, if a smaller than expected crowd of 1.5 million comes for the inauguration, would mean the Obama team anticipates a crowd of about 350,000 to watch his swearing-in.

500,000 turned out to watch Obama’s victory speech in Chicago on Election Day. It is highly unlikely, given numerous estimates putting expected attendance somewhere between two and five million, that fewer people would turn out for Obama’s inaugural ceremony than did his Chicago victory speech, particularly as they are coming to Washington specifically for the inauguration.

Even a Mall crowd of 700,000 – twice the figure required to validate Beliveau’s equations – seems conservative. If a lowball estimate of 1.5 million people come to Washington on Inauguration Day, would more than half of them really opt to miss the swearing-in?

Obamapalooza predicts at least one million people fill the National Mall on Inauguration Day, at a bladder/toilet ratio of a 1,000:1.

Mr Beliveau, get your mop.

JCCIC Releases Inaugural Lineup

The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies has released the inaugural lineup.

After musical selections from the Marine Corps Band, the San Francisco Boys Chorus and the San Francisco Girls Chorus, California Senator Dianne Feinstein will call the inauguration to order and present welcoming remarks.

Controversial evangelical pastor Rick Warren will then give the invocation. Musical legend Aretha Franklin will perform after Warren.

Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens will then administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect Joe Biden.

Musical selections from Hollywood composer John Williams, performed by Itzhak Perlman, Yo-Yo Ma, Gabriela Montero and Anthony McGill, follow Biden’s swearing in.

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts will then administer the oath of office to President-elect Barack Obama. Following his swearing in, Obama will give his inaugural address.

Poet Elizabeth Alexander will read a poem after the newly minted President concludes his remarks. Following her Reverend Joseph Lowery, of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, will offer the benediction.

Finally, the US Navy Band “Sea Chanters” will perform the National Anthem with the accompaniment of a record shattering crowd assembled at the foot of the US Capitol.

“Last Call” Compromise

The DC Council succumbed to pressure from concerned US Senators and ecumenical and community groups last night and moved a special inauguration week “last call” in District bars to 4 a.m. from the 5 a.m. cutoff announced last week.

Under rules laid out in last night’s 9-4 vote, bars can remain open twenty-four hours from January 17-21, but may only serve alcohol until 4 a.m. Bars that wish to extend their hours past 2 a.m. weekdays and 3 a.m. weekends must pay a registration fee of $100 for bars and restaurants and $250 for nightclubs, the Washington Post reports.

The new 4 a.m. closing time is a compromise to vent off anger from various sources. Community groups said the DC Council rode roughshod over legally binding agreements between communities and bars about noise and operating hours when it announced last week without prior public notification that bars would have been able to serve alcohol until 5 a.m.

Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Bob Bennett (R-Utah) protested drawing police away from inauguration security to contend with drunken crowds on the streets of places like Adams Morgan. The Downtown Cluster of Congregations sided with Sens. Feinstein and Bennett noting that the current level of police presence in Adams Morgan hasn’t been able to prevent a string of recent homicides in the popular nightlife neighborhood.

Meanwhile, the bureaucratic disconnect between the DC Council and DC Metro remains. With the dust settled, the 4 a.m. “last call” compromise appears likely to stand, but Metro has yet to amend its hours of operation past 3 a.m. January 17, midnight January 18 and 19 and 2 a.m. January 20.

After celebrating late into the night in District bars during inauguration week, throngs of revelers trapped in the city by insufficient transportation infrastructure will have to find their way back to their lodgings on foot, in the dark, in late January, or wait for Metro to begin operating.

Obama to Arrive in Washington by Train

Those looking for further evidence that Amtrak is the premier mode of travel to the 2009 Inauguration should note their fellow passengers: the Obamas and the Bidens. The Presidential Inaugural Committee released President-Elect Barack Obama’s inaugural travel plans yesterday.

Mimicking the last stage of Abraham Lincoln’s 1861 railroad journey to Washington, Obama and his family will board a chartered Amtrak in Philadelphia January 17. Vice President-Elect Joe Biden will join the Obamas in Wilmington, Del., from which Biden made daily commutes on Amtrak during his long tenure as a US Senator. A final stop in Baltimore will provide residents of Charm City unable to attend the January 20 inauguration in neighboring Washington DC a chance to cheer on the hugely energizing Obama.

The Presidential Inaugural Committee suggested official inaugural events will begin after the Obamas’ and Bidens’ January 17 evening arrival. Without releasing specifics, they suggested there may be an official appearance by Barack Obama on the National Mall January 18.

No word yet on how Amtrak travel along the Philadelphia-Washington corridor will be affected by security.

Washington Metro’s Answer to Inauguration Crowds: The Schleppin Plan

Expected Inauguration Day turnout will vastly exceed Metro’s capabilities, forcing hundreds of thousands of visitors to walk to and from the noon swearing-in ceremony and the afternoon parade.

Area transportation experts told the Washington Post that even half the expected two to four million attendees will swamp a transit system designed to move 120,000 people per hour.

Coupled with massive street closures in the heart of the city and an estimated 10,000 charter buses expected Inauguration Day, the transportation infrastructure of the greater Washington area will be strained to the brink.

Southwest, United Airlines and US Airways have all added flights into the three airports serving DC, but in the case of National and Dulles airports, arriving passengers will be bottled-necked crossing the Potomac.

Passengers arriving at Dulles lack a rail link into the city and their schedules will be at the mercy of northbound traffic trying to navigate the five bridges connecting DC to Virginia.

National Airport is linked to the city by Metro and is much closer to Washington and the outlying cities of Arlington and Alexandria where tens of thousands of visitors are likely to stay. But with Metro ridership expected to exceed capacity, passengers should remember to pack their senses of humor.

Arriving into the city from Maryland’s BWI could prove easier. Maryland’s MARC commuter train, which serves BWI, will run on Inauguration Day, but southbound traffic on the I-95 corridor likely will be punishing. Amtrak, which also serves BWI, has added additional trains into Union Station.

East Coast visitors still looking for tickets to Washington might consider taking the train. With Metro and vehicle traffic likely to be paralyzed, Amtrak’s service to Union Station could be the most convenient way in and out of downtown Washington.

At the northern foot of Capitol Hill, Union Station is a short walk to the National Mall. On January 20, it looks like walking is going to be the transport of choice for visitors and residents alike.

Feds Scurry to Dampen Camping Fears

The Washington Post reported this morning that camping will not be permitted on the Mall for the presidential inauguration, assuaging nervous Washingtonians that the projected three to five million attendees of the 2009 Inauguration might transform the center of the District into a makeshift campground.

US Park Police Spokesman Sgt Robert LaChance told reporters that it is "not legal to camp on the Mall" and that though it is open twenty-four hours a day, the 500 acre common in the heart of the city might be swept to check for bombs during the night, the Post reported. Sgt LaChance did not specify what exactly constitutes camping versus all night loitering.

In contrast to DC Mayor Adrian Fenty's comments that he expects Obama supporters to camp overnight for inauguration parade seating, Secret Service spokesman Malcolm D Wiley said that 7 am would be "the absolute earliest you can get to a sidewalk" along the parade route, the Post also reported.

Wiley also struck a more conservative tone about expected turnout to the inauguration. According to the Post, Wiley said, "we have nothing to suggest there will be four million." Mayor Fenty has put the estimated number of inauguration attendees at three to five million.