Obamapalooza

(Revelers throng to the Washington Monument for Obama's swearing-in.)

A four-day weekend of high expectations came to a gleeful close Tuesday, as Barack Obama was sworn in as President of the United States. Nearly two million people crowded the vast frozen common of the National Mall to watch the brief swearing-in ceremony, while thousands who held tickets to secure areas at the foot of Capitol Hill found themselves trapped in immobile hordes. Thousands spent the ceremony trapped underground in the Third Street tunnel under Pennsylvania Avenue, after being directed there by confused police.

For the record-shattering crowds who clustered around the twenty-one Jumbotrons erected on the Mall, Inauguration Day consisted of long, meandering walks around an overzealous network of security barricades punctuated by the high emotion of the ceremony itself. Revelers cheered and booed as past presidents and cabinet nominees filed into the bleachers above the inaugural podium. Both Presidents Bush and a wheel-chair bound Dick Cheney drew thunderous hisses and boos from the excited crowd, while Bill and Hillary Clinton and the Obamas received cheers and ululations each time they appeared on the enormous screens. After President Obama finished his oath, strangers hugged one another and people openly wept. When Reverend Joseph Lowery finished his benediction with a call and response of "amen," the call was answered with triumphant excitement.

Sunday's free concert on the Mall augured Tuesday's historical turnout. Half a million people filled the grounds around the Lincoln Memorial to watch Sunday's star-studded performance, more than the entire turnout to George W Bush's second inauguration in 2005.


(Spectators filled the west slope of the Washington Monument.)



(This man came from Jalisco to represent el espiritu Azteca.)



(After the concert, people flooded the streets around the White House.)

Monday, the Mall buzzed with excitement. Visitors took turns throwing shoes at effigies of former President Bush. Throughout DC, officials put finishing touches on complex and overlapping security precautions. Buildings around downtown were searched and sealed. Groups of National Guard troops occupied street corners along Florida Avenue and took up positions outside shuttered liquor stores. The historic U Street corridor filled with visitors who flooded restaurants, clubs and bars. Dozens stood in line outside Ben's Chili Bowl.

Hours before dawn on Tuesday, attendees began the long march towards the Mall or the sidewalks of Pennsylvania Avenue. The streets around the Capitol were closed, forcing uncoordinated streams of tens of thousands into chaotic confluences that left thousands stranded. Barricades and bottlenecks corralled masses of people without clear signs or informed officials to guide them. Happily, they were in a cheery mood.


(Thousands spent the swearing-in trapped in the "Tunnel of Doom.")



(Nearly two million filled the National Mall.)



(People climbed trees and portable toilets for a better view.)


While the atmosphere was jubilant, the crowd clearly harbored resentment towards eight years of Bush leadership. As current and former government officials streamed into the bleachers on Capitol Hill, the masses on the Mall booed vociferously as George HW Bush, George W Bush and Dick Cheney appeared on the Jumbotrons. When Bill and Hillary Clinton appeared, they cheered. President Obama's motorcade, his family and his cabinet nominees received shouts of praise. When the President appeared, the cheers were deafening. After Chief Justice John Roberts bungled the administration of the oath of office, Obama delivered his inaugural address with the surety and rhetorical confidence he demonstrated on the campaign trail, promising renewed national unity in the face of two wars and global economic collapse.



(President Obama takes the oath of office beside his wife Michelle.)


After the swearing-in concluded, exiting the Mall took hours. As crowds bled away, they revealed fields of detritus amounting to more litter than all the litter ever left on the Mall combined, the Park Police said today. While people waited to clear needless and redundant barricades, they were treated to a flyover by the Marine helicopter ferrying former President Bush to Edwards Air Force Base, where he caught a flight to Midland, Texas. Once clear of Mall, crowds dissipated quickly, catching Metro trains to distant hotels, filling bars and restaurants, and walking back to their neighborhoods.

During the Congressional luncheon immediately after the swearing-in, Senators Edward Kennedy and Robert Bird were taken to the hospital after Kennedy had a seizure. Senator Bird was so upset, he was also taken to the hospital as a precaution. After a forty minute delay caused by their departures, Obama left Capitol Hill in his new, highly armored limousine dubbed "The Beast." He seemed happy, despite the unfortunate interruption, and opted to walk portions of the parade route before arriving at the review stand opposite the White House. After appearances at ten inaugural balls, the President returned to the White House with his wife, where they drank champagne with a small cohort of guests.



(After the swearing-in, George W Bush took one last flight over DC.)



(The line into Capitol South Metro Station reached two blocks.)



(Many crowded the homes of local residents, eager to witness to history.)

Free Concert Draws Hundreds of Thousands

(Hundreds of thousands turned out for the concert.)

Hundreds of thousands of excited revelers flocked to the National Mall today to watch a free inaugural concert presented by HBO. Of the star-studded cast, the real star was President-elect Barack Obama, who sat beaming on the front row with his wife, daughters, Vice-president Elect Joe Biden and Mrs Biden. Hundreds of thousands filled the wooded grounds around the Reflecting Pool and the slope of frozen yellow grass between the Washington Monument and the World War Two Memorial.


(All were invited. Many came.)

Among the highlights of the show were performances by Bruce Springsteen, Usher and Stevie Wonder, and a rousing rendition of This Land is Your Land led by Pete Seeger. Among numerous speakers, Jamie Foxx, Denzel Washington, and Samuel Jackson stood out, with Foxx playfully mocking Obama's oratorical style. Low points included a flaccid and long-winded speech by Tom Hanks, inconsequential appearances by several celebrities, two tethered bald eagles, and a set-ruining cameo by Jon Bon Jovi. Obama appeared at the end of the afternoon-long show, giving the last speech of his political career before assuming the office of president on Tuesday.

Post Map Shows 21 Jumbotrons on Mall

According to the Washington Post, twenty-one, not twenty-two Jumbotrons will be placed along the 1.9 miles of the National Mall for President-elect Barack Obama’s swearing-in ceremony. With more than a million visitors expected Tuesday morning, inauguration officials will provide the enormous television screens to enable viewing from the far reaches of the grassy common. In accordance with Obama’s wishes that his inauguration be more inclusive than past ceremonies, the US Park Police, which oversees the Mall, has decided to open the entire 309 acres to the public. In previous years, much of the area was used as a staging ground for the Inaugural Parade.

A map detailing the location of the Jumbotrons appeared in this morning’s paper and is available online here.

Weekend Roundup

With just over a week remaining before the inauguration, officials ran through an inauguration rehearsal while the Obamas spent their first weekend in Washington as future first family.

Saturday, President-elect Obama went to lunch with DC Mayor Adrian Fenty at Ben’s Chili Bowl, a DC institution long considered one of the important centers of black culture in one of the capital cities of black America. True to his promise to be in better touch with DC than previous presidents, Obama accompanied Fenty to the grubby U-street diner rather than one of numerous fine restaurants reserved for Washington power brokers. They ordered the house special, chili half-smokes, a half-pork half-beef sausage smothered in chili. The half-smoke is DC’s signature dish. A sign in the restaurant which once read "People who eat free at Ben's: Bill Cosby and NO ONE ELSE" has been amended to read "People who eat free at Ben's: Bill Cosby and The Obama Family." Hand written beneath it someone wrote, "He Paid."

Later on Saturday, Obama visited the Lincoln Memorial with wife Michelle and their two daughters Malia and Sasha. Arriving after dark, the future first family toured the enormous temple at the west end of the National Mall, with its famous 20 ft statue of the 16th President and Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation and 2nd Inaugural Address inscribed on its walls. They toured the basement museum of Lincoln memorabilia before appearing briefly on the monument's white steps where they waved to passersby. Perhaps Mr Obama was looking for inspiration for his own inaugural address, which he will give a week from tomorrow at the opposite end of DC’s great common.

On Sunday, officials from the alphabet soup of different and complimentary inauguration committees performed a rehearsal of the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. 26-year-old Army Staff Sgt. Derrick Brooks portrayed Obama, giving the shortest inaugural address in history, “My fellow Americans, God bless America.” LaSean McCray, a 36-year-old Navy yeoman first class, portrayed Michelle Obama. Several military and civilian bands marched in the mock parade from Capitol Hill to the White House, while officials twice practiced Marine One’s helicopter departure from the Capitol's East Plaza which will take George W Bush on the final ride of his presidency.

What One Press Conference Giveth

DC Police Chief Cathy Lanier assured District residents that there will be ample security during inauguration weekend, noting that more than 10,000 National Guard troops will be on hand to back up civilian police, the Washington Post reported today.

That figure is at odds with figures released earlier this week putting the total number of military personnel at 11,500 -- 5,000 of whom will march in the Inaugural Parade in a ceremonial capacity and at least a modest percentage of whom will be from the Marines, Navy, Army, Coast Guard and Air Force.

Air Force General Victor Renuart, head of Northern Command, had previously put the number of National Guardsmen at 4,000, with 7,500 active-duty airmen, sailors, soldiers and marines either involved in the parade, or conducting various security functions, including intelligence gathering and combat air patrols, Roll Call reported on December 17. It is not clear whether Lanier was announcing a massive inauguration surge or merely misspoke.

According to the Post article, DC police officers will start 12-hour shifts on January 16, ensuring they will be grumpy and sleep-deprived on Inauguration Day. All of Washington's 4,000 police officers will be on deck for crowd control purposes, bolstered by an additional 4,000 officers from jurisdictions outside the District.

Chief Lanier downplayed expectations of gargantuan crowds, saying she expected one to two million people to arrive in Washington, DC on Inauguration Day. If DC's 580,000 residents and the large numbers of people arriving in the District before January 20 are taken into account, that figure meshes pretty well with the 1.5 to 3 million predicted earlier this week.

In any event, the inauguration will be televised. According to the Post article, inauguration officials have upped the number of Jumbotrons on the Mall from ten to twenty-two.

Inaugural Security Picture Coming Into Focus

In a front-page article in Sunday's paper about beefed-up security at the inauguration, the Washington Post again missed the forest for the trees.

Based on figures compiled from the Post article, the total security presence for the 2009 inauguration will be 67% larger than for George W Bush’s 2005 inauguration, while total attendance, currently estimated to be between 1.5 million and 3 million, will be four to eight times larger. In other words, the proportional security presence at Barack Obama’s inauguration will be anywhere from half to nearly a quarter of that provided for Bush in 2005.

According to the figures reported by the Post, the FBI’s Washington Field Office will bring in a 20% larger force than is typical for an inauguration. The Park Police, which oversees the National Mall, will increase its force by 66%. The D.C. police presence, bolstered by 4,000 officers from outside the District, will be 25% larger than that at George Bush’s 2005 inauguration. Relative to this year’s expected turnout, those increases would be paltry without a massive increase in military personnel acting as security.

11,500 active duty troops will be in Washington on Inauguration Day, compared with 7,000 in 2005, a 64% jump. But if the 5,000 servicemen and women who traditionally participate in the inaugural parade are discounted as security, the size of the military’s security footprint, in real terms, will increase from 2,000 to 6,500, a 225% larger force than in 2005. According to the Post, 1,300 unarmed National Guard soldiers will bolster the ranks of 1,000 Park Police tasked with controlling the 309 acres of the National Mall. The remaining 5,000 military personnel – a full brigade – will assist “with crowd control, communications, security, medical care, logistics, weapons detection and other needs,” the Post reported.

That means Obama’s inauguration, with a substantially smaller security presence relative to crowd size, will be substantially more militarized. Given that inaugurations are exercises in symbolism, filling Washington with thousands of uniformed troops seems like a potential public relations gaff. Obama rode into office on a wave of public discontent with the Iraq War. The last time the National Guard flooded DC’s streets was 1968, during the race riots that exploded after the assassination of Martin Luther King. A militarized inauguration could evoke both.

JCCIC Asks Disabled to Think Twice About Inauguration; Ticket Holders to Arrive by 9

The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies advised ticket holders to the January 20 inauguration to arrive no later than 9 a.m. The program starts at 11:30. 240,000 ticketed guests will occupy a secure zone on the western slope of Capitol Hill. Strollers, backpacks, thermoses and umbrellas are prohibited in the secure zone and all ticket holders will pass through a metal detector and receive a pat down.

1,000,000 or more people are expected on the National Mall, a grassy common that stretches from the base of Capitol Hill to the Lincoln Memorial, some two miles distant. Those attendees will be able to watch the inaugural program via ten enormous Jumbotrons. While there are no restrictions on strollers or other items on the Mall, event organizers have asked parents to consider the wisdom of bringing young children given limited space, large crowds, hours-long waits and potentially cold weather.

Additionally, the JCCIC asked people with special needs to think twice about attending the inauguration. Traffic to and from Capitol Hill and the Mall will be severely curtailed, requiring millions to either walk several miles or suffer inordinately long lines and overcrowding in Metro stations. Given the importance of Metro to the overall movement of inauguration attendees, JCCIC’s decision seems a thinly veiled plea for the disabled to get out of the way.

Abrahamapalooza 2.0

First he settled on following the tail leg of Lincoln’s whistle stop tour to the 1861 inauguration, deciding to travel by train from Philadelphia to Washington January 17, 2009. Now Barack Obama will swear his allegiance to the Constitution on a bible once owned by the sixteenth president, the Presidential Inaugural Committee announced yesterday.

Owning to a combination of Obama’s personal admiration for his predecessor and a knack for political showmanship, the 2009 inauguration will be full of nods to Lincoln. True the men have something in common. Both were adopted sons of Illinois who began their careers in Illinois state politics. Both were long shot candidates, political outsiders often ridiculed for their backgrounds, appearances and lack of the traditional presidential trappings. But much of the Lincoln-Obama parallel results from circumstance and shrewd stagecraft.

Obama has chosen to arrive at his inauguration on a train from Philadelphia, after a stop in Baltimore, as Lincoln did in 1861. Obama will take the oath of office with his hand on Lincoln’s bible. During Obama’s swearing in on the west steps of the US Capitol he will look across the National Mall to the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, where Martin Luther King gave the most important speech of the civil rights era forty-five years ago.

If any theme has predominance in Obama’s nascent presidency it is reconciliation. He has stocked his cabinet, as Lincoln did, with rivals. He has reached across party lines, inviting prominent Republicans to join his cohort. In the selection of Rick Warren to give the inaugural invocation, Obama showed that embracing the evangelical right at least symbolically was worth alienating an important and influential part of the left.

The inauguration is our first glimpse at what the Obama presidency will be like, apart from the bluster and promise of the primary and general elections. It is the first fruit of Obama policy. In the choice of Lincoln as a symbol and a role model, Obama promises to follow ideals rather than political expediencies. Hopefully he can live up to that promise.

Towards a Final Tally

Guessing how many people will attend Barack Obama’s inauguration in just under a month is quickly becoming the most popular parlor game in DC. Backing away from previous estimates that as many as 6 million people could flood the city for the January 20 festivities, city officials revised their projections downwards in an article appearing in today’s Washington Post. But new figures of 1.5 to 3 million are drawn from maximum capacities of DC’s metropolitan area transportation infrastructure, not demand. In other words, the new figures reflect how many people may actually make it into the city for the swearing-in and subsequent parade, but not how many people may try.

The Post article reveals that original estimates of 4 to 6 million came from projected demand and did not reflect infrastructural capabilities. Much like the German army’s Schlieffen Plan in World War One – which put more troops in motion than roads and trains could physically carry – these early projections appear to have originated with haphazard reasoning based on little more than holding a wet finger in the political winds. While officials are cutting those estimates by more than half, their new figures do not account for what will happen to any excess of people who come to the DC area during the inauguration weekend but are left stranded outside the city due to insufficient road and rail capacity.

In an augury of just how little officials know about inauguration turnout, the Post story repeats City Administrator Dan Tangherlini’s fallacious reasoning that the final number can be estimated by accounting for Metro’s 1.2 million person capacity. Metro is not an indicator of turnout as a Metro rider must already be in the DC area to use Metro in the first place. How many people can ride the subway doesn't reflect how many people will try to come to the city. Furthermore, while suburban residents from Maryland and Virginia may use Metro to reach the inaugural festivities, the 1.2 million figure also accounts for visitors who reached the Washington area by other means.

Calculating those numbers is easier.

500,000 people are expected to arrive on 10,000 chartered buses – half of the total number of charter buses east of the Mississippi. An additional 500,000 are due to arrive at National, Dulles and BWI airports. 75,000 are slated to arrive on Amtrak. 580,000 people live in the District. 5.3 million live in the Washington Metropolitan Area. While these projections, drawn from ticket sales and bus charters, appear relatively stable, several important variables remain unknown that could radically alter the final attendance numbers.

Perhaps the most important is car travel. AAA told the Post that three-quarters of tourists visiting DC arrive by car. But with bridges closed to private vehicles and large swaths of the city closed to traffic for security, it is anybody’s guess how many people will try to drive into the city or to outlying park and ride areas. If anywhere close to the three-quarters figure holds true in this case, upwards of 3 million people could be stalled in gridlock on the complex system of interstate surrounding the nation’s capital. How many would-be drivers actually make the inauguration is anyone’s guess.

The next most important factor is weather. If January 20 is a clear, relatively warm day, hundreds of thousands of residents living within a few miles of the National Mall may walk to the inauguration, swelling the total numbers substantially. DC is a Janus-faced city. On the one hand, it is Wonkdom – home of legions of federal bureaucrats who live and breathe politics. On the other, it is Chocolate City – historically and culturally one of the most important black cities in America. In a testament to his political charisma, Obama has sent a bolt of electricity through both enclaves. Decent weather could bring out Washington area residents in huge numbers.

Finally, one must account for interest. While people who already purchased tickets are unlikely to scrap their plans, visitors planning to drive from east coast cities and residents of surrounding suburbs and exurbs looking at a potential meltdown of mass transit services may opt to stay home and watch the inauguration on TV. That decision is affected by a complex and fluctuating political energy. Obama attracted record numbers during his close primary fight and election battle. Inauguration turnout may measure whether the Obameter is already starting to settle towards a new reality.

Looking Out For Number One (& For Number Two)

In what is either a serious downgrading of expected inauguration turnout or a bureaucratic snafu waiting in the wings, Presidental Inaugural Committee executive director Emmett Beliveau announced that 5,000 portable toilets will be made available for the inauguration.

While that may sound like a lot, 2,200 portable toilets were on hand for George W Bush’s 2005 inauguration, which 300,000 people attended. That’s one porta-potty for every 136 people. If two million people attend the noon swearing-in ceremony and the 2:30 inaugural parade, 5,000 toilets will provide one seven-foot plastic sanctuary for every 400 people, exceeding the National Park Service’s recommendation of one per 300.

Does this mean the Obama inaugural committee expects a lower than predicted turnout? Or has Mr Beliveau fudged his toilet algebra?

Obamapalooza thinks the latter.

Of those 5,000 toilets, only 1,000 will be arrayed along the Mall, with 3,500 dotting the parade route. Surely at least as many people will attend Obama’s inaugural ceremony as will attend the parade. Beliveau’s toilet algebra would have three times as many people attending the latter, which, if a smaller than expected crowd of 1.5 million comes for the inauguration, would mean the Obama team anticipates a crowd of about 350,000 to watch his swearing-in.

500,000 turned out to watch Obama’s victory speech in Chicago on Election Day. It is highly unlikely, given numerous estimates putting expected attendance somewhere between two and five million, that fewer people would turn out for Obama’s inaugural ceremony than did his Chicago victory speech, particularly as they are coming to Washington specifically for the inauguration.

Even a Mall crowd of 700,000 – twice the figure required to validate Beliveau’s equations – seems conservative. If a lowball estimate of 1.5 million people come to Washington on Inauguration Day, would more than half of them really opt to miss the swearing-in?

Obamapalooza predicts at least one million people fill the National Mall on Inauguration Day, at a bladder/toilet ratio of a 1,000:1.

Mr Beliveau, get your mop.

Inauguration Updates

Controversial evangelical pastor Rick Warren will perform the invocation at Barack Obama's swearing-in ceremony. Warren is founder of the Saddleback Church, a sprawling California megachurch that draws 20,000 people to its Sunday services, making it the fourth largest church in the United States. While Warren and Obama agree politically on AIDS and poverty relief, the choice of a figure with conservative views on gay marriage, stem cell research and women’s rights has mystified and angered many of Obama’s liberal supporters.

Roll Call reported yesterday that 10,000 active-duty US military personnel will be on hand in Washington during the January 20 inauguration. That figure is double the previously mentioned figure of 5,000 soldiers slated to aid in security and crowd control. It remains unclear how many of the additional personnel will perform ceremonial functions. While the Secret Service controls overall security during the inauguration, the US military coordinates the inaugural parade of the newly sworn-in President. Traditionally, soldiers, airmen, sailors and marines march in the procession.

The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies announced that poet Elizabeth Alexander will read at the inauguration. Alexander, 46, a professor of African American studies at Yale will be the fourth poet to read at a US Presidential Inauguration, and the first since Miller Williams read at Bill Clinton’s second inauguration in 1997. Previously, Maya Angelou read in 1993 at Clinton’s first inauguration and Robert Frost read at John Kennedy’s inauguration in 1961. Alexander, the author of four books of poetry, was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 1995.

The Washington Post reported today that more than 700 of nearly 1,700 locations slated for inauguration vendors will be given to Washington locals. The Department of Consumer and Regulatory Affairs revised the original number of vendor locations up from 500 to address the massive turnout expected for the inauguration. Only 100 vendors were on hand during George W Bush’s second inauguration in 2005. 716 D.C. street vendors will be given first preference for locations near the National Mall and at parking lots where thousands of buses are expected to unload visitors.

Feds Scurry to Dampen Camping Fears

The Washington Post reported this morning that camping will not be permitted on the Mall for the presidential inauguration, assuaging nervous Washingtonians that the projected three to five million attendees of the 2009 Inauguration might transform the center of the District into a makeshift campground.

US Park Police Spokesman Sgt Robert LaChance told reporters that it is "not legal to camp on the Mall" and that though it is open twenty-four hours a day, the 500 acre common in the heart of the city might be swept to check for bombs during the night, the Post reported. Sgt LaChance did not specify what exactly constitutes camping versus all night loitering.

In contrast to DC Mayor Adrian Fenty's comments that he expects Obama supporters to camp overnight for inauguration parade seating, Secret Service spokesman Malcolm D Wiley said that 7 am would be "the absolute earliest you can get to a sidewalk" along the parade route, the Post also reported.

Wiley also struck a more conservative tone about expected turnout to the inauguration. According to the Post, Wiley said, "we have nothing to suggest there will be four million." Mayor Fenty has put the estimated number of inauguration attendees at three to five million.