Nasty, Brutish and Long

The Secret Service and DC Government released important inauguration transit information today.

All Potomac River bridges linking Virginia to the District of Columbia will be closed to private vehicles. The Arlington Memorial Bridge will be open to pedestrians walking into the District from North Virginia. All other bridges will be open to buses, taxis, limousines and emergency vehicles.

•14th Street Bridge (Buses and Authorized Vehicles Only)
•Roosevelt Bridge (Buses and Authorized Vehicles Only)
•Memorial Bridge (Pedestrians and Emergency Vehicles Only)
•Key Bridge (Buses and Authorized Vehicles Only)
•South Capitol Street Bridge (Buses and Authorized Vehicles Only)
•11th Street Bridges (Buses and Authorized Vehicles Only)

The Sousa, Whitney Young and Benning Road bridges across the Anacostia River will be open, though enormous portions of South East DC around RFK stadium will be used as tour bus parking.

Major vehicular arteries into the District from Maryland will be open to all traffic.

•Rock Creek Parkway (all traffic) – From Piney Branch Rd to Virginia Ave
•East Capitol Street (all traffic) – RFK area will be filled with tour buses
•Benning Road (all traffic)
•New York Avenue (all traffic)

To facilitate charter bus passengers and motorists lucky enough to find parking, the 3rd Street Tunnel will be reserved for pedestrians.


(Street closures and access points in downtown DC)

Meanwhile, DC Metro will open 60,000 private parking spots at park and ride lots in Maryland and Virginia, the Washington Post reported. The park and ride lots were previously reserved for charter bus parking, but after DC officials provided parking for 10,000 charter buses within walking distance of the Mall, those lots became available.

Lots and garages open 3:30 AM on Jan. 20. Parking costs a flat rate of 4$ payable only in cash.

Park and ride lots in PG County will be open at Greenbelt and Morgan Blvd stations on the Green and Blue Lines, and in Fairfax County at the Van Dorn St station, also on the Blue Line.

With transit points into the District severally limited, much of the city center off limits to private vehicles and parking likely to be a nightmare, inauguration attendees coming from Virginian suburbs are likely to face long waits and large crowds at Metro stations, while those arriving at Dulles and National Airports will be at the mercy of traffic conditions.

With no rail link between Dulles and DC, passengers arriving there will have no option but to take a cab or bus into the city. Traffic from Dulles is congested under normal conditions. Given the huge turnout expected, passengers arriving at Washington’s least accessible airport may spend hours on clogged roadways. Passengers arriving at National Airport willing to shell out for a cab may have an easier time than normal entering the city as bridges will be free of private vehicles.

Visitors arriving from Maryland face different challenges. Though major vehicular arteries are open to private vehicles, traffic will be horrendous. Congested under normal conditions, the multiple branches of the I-95 system connecting DC to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston will likely be gridlocked. Traffic inside the city will be no better and finding parking will be a miracle. Passengers arriving at BWI Airport have a choice of MARC commuter rail, Amtrak, taxi and bus. Though MARC will be closed to service Sunday Jan 18, MARC is running full service on the Penn Line, which serves BWI, on Martin Luther King Day.

Those lucky enough to have a hotel room, rented apartment, sofa or living room floor inside the District will likely have to walk several miles to the Mall and parade route. No word yet on expected weather conditions.

Towards a Final Tally

Guessing how many people will attend Barack Obama’s inauguration in just under a month is quickly becoming the most popular parlor game in DC. Backing away from previous estimates that as many as 6 million people could flood the city for the January 20 festivities, city officials revised their projections downwards in an article appearing in today’s Washington Post. But new figures of 1.5 to 3 million are drawn from maximum capacities of DC’s metropolitan area transportation infrastructure, not demand. In other words, the new figures reflect how many people may actually make it into the city for the swearing-in and subsequent parade, but not how many people may try.

The Post article reveals that original estimates of 4 to 6 million came from projected demand and did not reflect infrastructural capabilities. Much like the German army’s Schlieffen Plan in World War One – which put more troops in motion than roads and trains could physically carry – these early projections appear to have originated with haphazard reasoning based on little more than holding a wet finger in the political winds. While officials are cutting those estimates by more than half, their new figures do not account for what will happen to any excess of people who come to the DC area during the inauguration weekend but are left stranded outside the city due to insufficient road and rail capacity.

In an augury of just how little officials know about inauguration turnout, the Post story repeats City Administrator Dan Tangherlini’s fallacious reasoning that the final number can be estimated by accounting for Metro’s 1.2 million person capacity. Metro is not an indicator of turnout as a Metro rider must already be in the DC area to use Metro in the first place. How many people can ride the subway doesn't reflect how many people will try to come to the city. Furthermore, while suburban residents from Maryland and Virginia may use Metro to reach the inaugural festivities, the 1.2 million figure also accounts for visitors who reached the Washington area by other means.

Calculating those numbers is easier.

500,000 people are expected to arrive on 10,000 chartered buses – half of the total number of charter buses east of the Mississippi. An additional 500,000 are due to arrive at National, Dulles and BWI airports. 75,000 are slated to arrive on Amtrak. 580,000 people live in the District. 5.3 million live in the Washington Metropolitan Area. While these projections, drawn from ticket sales and bus charters, appear relatively stable, several important variables remain unknown that could radically alter the final attendance numbers.

Perhaps the most important is car travel. AAA told the Post that three-quarters of tourists visiting DC arrive by car. But with bridges closed to private vehicles and large swaths of the city closed to traffic for security, it is anybody’s guess how many people will try to drive into the city or to outlying park and ride areas. If anywhere close to the three-quarters figure holds true in this case, upwards of 3 million people could be stalled in gridlock on the complex system of interstate surrounding the nation’s capital. How many would-be drivers actually make the inauguration is anyone’s guess.

The next most important factor is weather. If January 20 is a clear, relatively warm day, hundreds of thousands of residents living within a few miles of the National Mall may walk to the inauguration, swelling the total numbers substantially. DC is a Janus-faced city. On the one hand, it is Wonkdom – home of legions of federal bureaucrats who live and breathe politics. On the other, it is Chocolate City – historically and culturally one of the most important black cities in America. In a testament to his political charisma, Obama has sent a bolt of electricity through both enclaves. Decent weather could bring out Washington area residents in huge numbers.

Finally, one must account for interest. While people who already purchased tickets are unlikely to scrap their plans, visitors planning to drive from east coast cities and residents of surrounding suburbs and exurbs looking at a potential meltdown of mass transit services may opt to stay home and watch the inauguration on TV. That decision is affected by a complex and fluctuating political energy. Obama attracted record numbers during his close primary fight and election battle. Inauguration turnout may measure whether the Obameter is already starting to settle towards a new reality.

Washington Metro’s Answer to Inauguration Crowds: The Schleppin Plan

Expected Inauguration Day turnout will vastly exceed Metro’s capabilities, forcing hundreds of thousands of visitors to walk to and from the noon swearing-in ceremony and the afternoon parade.

Area transportation experts told the Washington Post that even half the expected two to four million attendees will swamp a transit system designed to move 120,000 people per hour.

Coupled with massive street closures in the heart of the city and an estimated 10,000 charter buses expected Inauguration Day, the transportation infrastructure of the greater Washington area will be strained to the brink.

Southwest, United Airlines and US Airways have all added flights into the three airports serving DC, but in the case of National and Dulles airports, arriving passengers will be bottled-necked crossing the Potomac.

Passengers arriving at Dulles lack a rail link into the city and their schedules will be at the mercy of northbound traffic trying to navigate the five bridges connecting DC to Virginia.

National Airport is linked to the city by Metro and is much closer to Washington and the outlying cities of Arlington and Alexandria where tens of thousands of visitors are likely to stay. But with Metro ridership expected to exceed capacity, passengers should remember to pack their senses of humor.

Arriving into the city from Maryland’s BWI could prove easier. Maryland’s MARC commuter train, which serves BWI, will run on Inauguration Day, but southbound traffic on the I-95 corridor likely will be punishing. Amtrak, which also serves BWI, has added additional trains into Union Station.

East Coast visitors still looking for tickets to Washington might consider taking the train. With Metro and vehicle traffic likely to be paralyzed, Amtrak’s service to Union Station could be the most convenient way in and out of downtown Washington.

At the northern foot of Capitol Hill, Union Station is a short walk to the National Mall. On January 20, it looks like walking is going to be the transport of choice for visitors and residents alike.